FF Minutes 12-1-21 Financial Forecasting Committee
December 1, 2021
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down costs over its lifetime. Houseman suggested a narrative entry on solar to discuss variables,
pros/cons, costs are unclear, could require investments not in the forecast.
Sherburne wrapped up with technology/printers including all equipment and anything in the
tech department, and other including curricula, music, specials, and anything not listed in other
line items. Sherburne can report back a better description at the next meeting, but generally
administration and other instruction categories not listed above.
Ames requested the next meeting include a broad overview to understand any clawbacks
from the last year, and ballpark a range of positive variances within this budget range,
understanding it would be a broad overview.
Houseman confirmed next week FFC will review revenues, tie up any loose ends from
tonight, and encouraged everyone to read the article to continue broader discussion from prior
meetings on transparency. Perry will draft this year's report, Houseman will review it and
include narrative with a hard deadline for members to provide input for inclusions to timely
finalize the report.
Visnick suggested attaching an addendum to the financial forecast, noting narrative has
improved and wants to present trends over time in concise format similar to the spreadsheets.
Houseman will review April 2021 minutes referencing an addendum, and referred back to the
shared article to help set the scope for committee work. Visnick noted prior forecasts were
roughly $1.7M less than received excise tax revenues in CAFR, but could not find similar
accounting to compare with budget's other categories. Ducharme asked for clarification of what
trends are being reviewed by the committee. Dr. McKenzie noted with the pandemic, it's hard to
find an area where variables are not affected, and they're forecasting under very unusual
circumstances so historical data may not be as useful as in other years.
Fogarty asked Visnick why she feels the City is underestimating excise tax revenues. Visnick
replied with figures that historically since at least 2016 the FFC forecasts for excise tax revenues
are far lower than actual revenues received. Ayles confirmed the City's financial reports comply
with accounting standards and practices, not meant to compare with the forecast spreadsheets.
Ayles confirmed a few years ago, when Councilor Rand chaired the committee, he walked
through a decade of actuals to gauge whether estimations were reasonable. Ayles advised it's
always tricky, especially the past two years, comparing forecasts made 18+ months in advance,
as estimates adjust at multiple points in the process. Better comparison is between the Mayor's
proposed budget to actuals. Financial forecasts are generally conservative because aggressive
projections may snowball quickly, and policymakers' current decisions based on forecast could
put the City in a precarious position if revenues came up short.
Perry suggested page 3 of the tax rate document provides information that may be useful, and
Ayles advised he may have information to share from 2018 deep dive, but updating those
numbers for current years is not possible by the December 71h meeting. Dr. Charochak confirmed
the District is looking at 2018 or current numbers, echoing Dr. McKenzie that the past two years
are such anomalies there are no real trends to predict future. Houseman affirmed financial
forecasts, as described in the article, are generally more conservative with explicit assumptions,
and everyone agreed to review the article.
IV. Adiournment
Visnick moved to adjourn. Ayles seconded. The motion carried (9-0). Meeting adjourned at 9:38
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